Recently, there have been rumors in the market that the purchase price of the national temporary reserve soybean will be 2.02 yuan/kg in the new year, and 50 yuan per ton of acquisition subsidies. Supported by this news, Dalian soybean prices have rebounded significantly after a few weeks of weakness. However, from a longer-term perspective, the State’s temporary store’s soybean policy still cannot change the weak pattern of domestic soybeans, and the process of marginalization of domestically produced beans is difficult to reverse.

According to the analysis of the national soybean purchasing and storage policy in the past few years, we believe that the actual purchase price of the national temporary storage soybean in the new year may be lower than market rumors, and it is expected to be between 1.95-1.97 yuan/kg. The main reason is that the soybean purchasing and storage policy must be In line with the general direction of the current state price control. Each year, the state's temporary purchase of soybeans is regulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, which is the core of national price control. Therefore, when formulating relevant policies for soybean collection and storage, it will inevitably consider the state's policy of controlling prices. Soybean oil, the downstream product of soybeans, is a vegetable oil species that is closely related to people's daily lives. If it is overpriced, it will undoubtedly release a bullish signal to the market, which is not conducive to the regulation of a slightly stable domestic vegetable oil market. In addition, although the rapeseed purchase policy introduced in the first half of this year drastically increased the price of rapeseed purchases this year, rapeseed oil, after all, is a relatively small-spending product compared with soybean oil. Its price has limited impact on commodity prices. The flexibility of the formulation is greater, and soybeans lack this foundation. According to the practice of changing soybean purchasing and storage prices, we have concluded that the actual purchase and storage price is between 1.95 and 1.97 yuan/kg.

Of course, neither the purchase price of 1.95-1.97 yuan/kg nor the purchase price of 2.02 yuan/kg is not an ideal price for soybean growers. This year, the selling price of soybeans for local farmers in Northeast China is at 2.00 yuan/kg. Although this is lower than the purchase price of the State Reserve, the quality of soybeans in Northeast China this year is generally poor. If the premium level is considered, the purchase price of the State Reserve is only related to the farmers' mentality. Bottom line is flat. At present, the listed purchase price of local oil plants in the Northeast is between 2.00 and 2.04 yuan/kg. By comparison, the purchase price of the State Reserve is totally unattractive for farmers.

Although from a large policy point of view, the state formulated temporary reserves of soybean acquisition policy, it has to meet the demand for stable prices, but for the soybean industry, it will undoubtedly continue to form a negative impact. In 2008, the state began to store and store soybeans. The fundamental policy formulation was to protect farmers in the financial crisis environment. However, due to the lack of timely follow-up on related supporting policies and measures, the Northeast soybean market was very light in recent years. . On the one hand, the northeast soybean has a low oil output rate. Even if the price is not high, the oil planters will not make money by squeezing it. On the other hand, with support from the State Reserve, farmers are unwilling to cut prices. The contradiction between the purchase and sale sides has led to the stalemate in the soybean market in Northeast China in recent years that “oil mills have been generally shut down and farmers have only sold state reserves”.

The stalemate in the Northeast soybean market has already had a serious impact on the cultivation of soybeans in the Northeast. Although the price of soybeans is relatively stable, with the increase in the cost of planting, the income from growing soybeans is seriously low, and the yield per hectare is less than 50% of that of corn and rice. Affected by this, Heilongjiang soybean planting area dropped by more than 20% in 2011. The sluggish price of new beans has also discouraged many farmers from continuing to grow soybeans next year. If the purchase price of the State Reserve Soybean is exactly what we expected, the trend of soybean planting area in Northeast China will not be curbed. In 2012, soybean planting area in Northeast China may continue the situation of severe shrinkage in 2011. At a higher level, the reduction in domestic soybean planting area will further reduce the supply of domestically produced beans, and the import dependence of soybeans will become higher and higher. Even in the near future, it may completely rely on imports. This will undoubtedly It has caused a serious blow to the national oil safety system.

On the other hand, for imported soybeans, this policy will form a long-term advantage. Due to the gradual marginalization of domestic soybeans, the demand for imported soybeans in China will continue to increase. Earlier, we had expected that China's annual import of soybeans will exceed 60 million tons in 2014/2015, and if the current rumors or the national temporary storage soybeans we anticipate will be implemented, the growth rate of imported soybeans will increase in the future. 6000 The breakthrough of the 10,000-ton mark may be 1-2 crop years ahead of schedule, which will form long-term benefits for the international soybean market.

Based on the above, in the impact of the State Reserve Policy on futures prices, we have reached the following conclusion: For the recent month soy contract, since the actual purchase and storage prices may be lower than market expectations, the news will be clear later. The price may experience a downward trend; for the forward contracts, for example, the 1301 contract reflecting the 2012 new soybean planting may be significantly supported by the expected decline in the domestic soybean production in 2012. At present, the macroeconomic fundamentals are not In the event of too much change, long-term investors are advised to focus on buying opportunities for the Soybean 1301 contract.