According to the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Aquatic Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau's monitoring of livestock and poultry products and feed prices in 20 bazaars in the region, the price of pork in Guangxi continued to rise on June 15 in the third week of June, and the average price of pork in the region was 27.51 yuan. Kg, up 0.8% from last week. The picture shows a freshly prepared pork for sale in a supermarket in Nanning, Guangxi, on June 21. Photo by Hong Jianpeng, China News Service June 22nd, China News Service Channel learned from the website of the National Development and Reform Commission that the head of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Price Division said that in the second week of June, the average playing price of live pigs in 34 large and medium cities reached 17.62 per kilogram. Yuan, up 79.2% over the same period of last year. The official said at the same time, due to the current increase in pork prices significantly lower than the price of pigs, the latter pork prices may rise to some extent.

From January to May, China's consumer price level continued to rise at a high level, and the year-on-year increase in May reached 5.5%. Coupled with the recent drought and flood disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, hog prices continued to rise, and all parties in the society are worried about price trends in the second half of the year. Intensified. The reporter specifically interviewed the head of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission.

In response to the question of “whether the price of live hogs will continue to rise in the second half of this year and raise the overall price level?”, the person in charge said that according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the average price of live pigs in 34 large and medium-sized cities reached 2 per kilogram in the second week of June. 17.62 yuan, up 79.2% over the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission noted that there were reports that “the price of live pigs has exceeded historical highs” and “created new heights”, and even thought that the rise in pork prices may once again trigger an increase in the overall price level. For this view, do an objective analysis.

The person in charge stated that, first of all, the current year-on-year increase in hog prices is very high, which is an objective fact. However, the year-on-year increase was mainly due to the low pig price during the same period last year. In terms of absolute value, at the beginning of June last year, the price of live pigs was 9.8 yuan per kilogram, which was the lowest level since March 2008; from the perspective of the pig-food ratio that judges the profitability of live pigs, 6:1 is normally a break-even point. However, it fell to 4.76:1 at the beginning of June last year, and pig breeding was at a loss. Later, under the influence of the state's periodical regularity of frozen meat storage and pig production, the price of pigs has gradually increased and accumulated to the present, showing a high year-on-year increase.

Secondly, the current price of live pigs is basically the same as the price in March 2008, which is the high point in recent years, but it is still in a reasonable range. In the three years since 2008, China’s land, feed, and labor costs have increased significantly, and the corresponding increase in live pig prices is also normal. At the same time, judging from the pig-food price ratio in determining the profitability of live pigs, the current national average pig-to-food ratio is 7.66:1, and a finishing pig weighing 100 kg can make a profit of 300-400 yuan, which is a relatively high level.

Finally, from the later trend, the improvement in the effectiveness of hog farming will help further mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to increase the bar, increase market supply in the later period, and thus help stabilize the price of pigs. According to statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the end of May, the total number of live pigs in the country was 453 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and an increase of 4.4% year-on-year; among them, the number of able-to-breed sows was 47.1 million, an increase of 0.32% compared with the previous period, and a year-on-year increase of 0.21%. This is quite different from the marked decline in live pig production in 2007 and the continued tight market supply. It is unlikely that hog prices will continue to increase significantly in the latter part of the year.

The responsible person said that due to the current sharp increase in the price of pork is lower than the price of pigs, the price of pork in the latter period may rise to some extent.